Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Should We Still Fear Iran?
The Economist thinks we should. When I first heard the news about the latest intelligence report concerning Iran I was a little surprised by a couple of things. First, I was surprised that the Bush administration let the word get out. Two, at the response of both Mr. Bush and the American Press. The article that I refer to contends that while Iran may have dialed back their nuclear plans it does not mean that the capability is not there. I think that is a key point. Iran is fully able to transport a warhead as far as they need to. They have figured out the hard part of the equation. As long as Iran continues to run uranium through Natanz's centrifuges the closer they get to weapons grade. The danger isn't over but this may be a chance for America to practice some rare diplomacy.
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Iranian dissidents are saying that Iran did, in fact, suspend their nuke work in 2003 (completely unrelated to their neighbors being stomped by the US-led coalitions, I'm sure), but started up again in 2004. That seems plausible and would fit the NIE report. My guess is this report is more CYA than anything else. If we act on Iran and find nothing untoward, they can say "see?" and if we find a huge nuclear weapon operation and bombs, they can say "well we told you in 2005."
I think our intelligence services need a reboot.
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